MALANGRAYA.CO – In the span of one busy week, Jakarta made a number of diplomatic and strategic steps that invited admiration and question marks.
Indonesia finalized a defense deal with the Pentagon, visited Russian President Vladimir Putin, confirmed the purchase of BrahMos missiles, and signaled it would leave Trump’s “Board of Peace.”
Under the leadership of President Prabowo Subianto, Indonesia seems to be redefining its geopolitical role on the scene Global South at high speed. However, what is this form? hedging genius or is it actually planting the seeds of future tension?
Indonesia’s footing on the global stage has become more complex since officially joining BRICS in January 2025. This step, which was taken almost simultaneously with strengthening military cooperation with the United States, shows Jakarta’s efforts to maintain its strategic autonomy. Indonesia does not want to be trapped in the West versus East bloc dichotomy, but rather actively utilizes leverage from all parties for its national interests.
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As analyzed by the ThinkBRICS channel on YouTube, this approach is visible even in seemingly paradoxical monetary policies: “Indonesia supports dedollarization through BRICS — diversifying reserves, building the capacity of the New Development Bank (NDB), reducing dollar dependence in bilateral trade. All concrete and structural steps towards a post-dollar world. And simultaneously — signing defense contracts priced in dollars, with American contractors, in a completely dollar-dominated military ecosystem.”
The analysis concludes that this is not hypocrisy, but rather a survival strategy: “It’s not hypocrisy. It’s how smart middle powers survive in the gap between one global monetary era and whatever comes next. Move slowly to shift currencies quickly.”
Calculated Hedging: Between Opportunity and Risk
Indonesia’s strategy is not a coincidence, but rather a careful calculation. An analysis in the Global South Review journal from UGM Yogyakarta provides an appropriate academic framework. Paper written by Danial Darwis & Aria Aditya Setiawan concluded that Indonesia’s membership in BRICS was “a strategy hedging calculated balance of bilateral relations and multilateral engagement to maintain strategic autonomy.”
The paper reveals that Indonesia’s accession to BRICS opens up strategic opportunities in South-South economic cooperation, access to alternative development financing, and increased geopolitical influence.
However, on the other hand, this also presents diplomatic risks such as potential pressure from the West, internal domination within BRICS by major powers, and reputational shifts that could affect ASEAN cohesion.
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Indonesian-style Defense and Diplomacy
The implementation of this strategy is clearly visible in the defense sector. India’s $100 million purchase of BrahMos missiles (a joint India-Russia project) and procurement of drone technology from the US demonstrate diversification of defense equipment sources. The focus is clear: securing the Malacca Strait, one of the most critical maritime vital points in the world.
This step is part of the “thousand friends” diplomacy which is being tested amidst the threat of stagnant inflation (stagflation) due to oil price fluctuations and tensions around the Strait of Hormuz.
By joining Indonesia, BRICS gains a member with the largest economy in ASEAN, which can strengthen the “Global South” agenda and the transition towards a multipolar financial system.
However, as various analyzes warn, diplomatic options will narrow over time. As the US-China rivalry heats up, the room for maneuver to be neutral and take advantage of all sides will become increasingly difficult.
Currently, Indonesia holds more cards than almost any country in the world Global South.
The world is not split into two neat blocks. He is divided into players and spectators. And Indonesia has chosen to be an active player.
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However, the success of this calculated hedging strategy will depend heavily on Jakarta’s ability to manage internal contradictions and inevitable external pressures. Agile diplomacy between Washington, Moscow, Beijing and New Delhi must remain based on clear and stable national interests. If not, the diplomatic time bomb of 2026 is not an impossible scenario. ***
